#103 Maciej Wojtal (Should you invest in Iranian equities?)

  • 00:00:20 How Maciej got started with Amtelon Capital and why he chose Iran as a primary investment target?
  • 00:05:33 Why is Iran like Russia (and Eastern Europe ) in the 1990s? Is there a catalyst for Iran making it back to be connected with the rest of the world?
  • 00:14:25 A short story of sanctions against Iran.
  • 00:26:06 How Iranians and the regime in Iran differ? Why is the regime so successful in controlling power?
  • 00:32:32 What are great businesses to invest in Iran?
  • 00:48:11 How Iran avoided the ‘Dutch disease’ of big commodity exporters.
  • 00:56:08 Is Iran starting to be a new part of an ‘Axis power’? Will this hamper the participation of outside investors in the Iranian market?

Maciej Wojtal is the founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital which is focused on investing in Iranian equities. Maciej has worked with Citigroup and JP Morgan before running his own fund.

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#102 Jared Dillian (From Lehman Brothers to 2021 – how did the financial industry change?)

  • 00:00:23 How did Jared’s path from Lehman Brothers to Internet personality develop?
  • 00:05:06 How did the finance industry develop during the last 20 years?
  • 00:08:18 Jared’s experience on writing a novel (and how it compares to his other book)?
  • 00:11:29 What is Jared’s view of the deflation/ inflation debate?
  • 00:17:03 Is productivity growth really as low as we assume? What role do stock buybacks play?
  • 00:22:01 Is individual risk taking the key to increase productivity growth?
  • 00:25:01 What are great areas of investment according to Jared?
  • 00:30:01 Will DeFi eradicate banks and most of the financial industry?
  • 00:34:01 Is the banking industry a good indicator for the health and competitiveness of an economy?
  • 00:38:36 How consistent should financial commentators be?

Jared Dillian is the author of Street Freak: Money and Madness at Lehman Brothers, named one of the top business books of 2011 by Businessweek magazine.

Jared runs The Daily Dirtnap, LLC, which provides daily market commentary and insight to a range of institutional clients.

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Continue…

#101 Stephen Clapham (How to spot a good investment – and a fraud!)

  • 00:00:33 How Stephen got started in the world of finance and what motivated him to write his latest book.
  • 00:10:05 What is the basic premise of Stephen’s analysis of financial statements (forensic accounting)?
  • 00:21:01 What is the fine line between fraud and creative accounting?
  • 00:27:22 What is Stephen’s analysis of the Wirecard fraud?
  • 00:32:27 How well do the current accounting standards actually work for provide transparency into profits/ losses of banks?
  • 00:39:51 Where does all the printed money (from Central Banks) actually go? What is the best option to ‘weather the current low growth environment’?
  • 00:51:10 How ‘money printing’ at this huge scale seems to be deflationary instead of inflationary?

Stephen Clapham is a retired hedge fund partner who now trains stock analysts at some of the world’s largest and most successful institutional investors. Stephen is also the author of The Smart Money Method: How to pick stocks like a hedge fund pro and hosts his own podcast.

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#100 Mike Green (The gravitational force of passive investing on capital allocation and geopolitics)

  • 00:00:31 How Mike researched and developed his theory of a market bubble in passive investing/ index investing? Are markets about information or transactions?
  • 00:08:01 Is the bubble of investing just a (bigger) change of the NIFTY fifty or the NASDAQ bubble in the 2000’s?
  • 00:13:53 Does Mike’s theory of passive investing predict higher volatility due to the changes in market structure?
  • 00:19:22 Is our low productivity growth linked to inefficient capital allocation due to passive investing skewing investments? Is the Fed to blame for the asset bubbles?
  • 00:26:57 Is the Fed’s own forecast model broken now that markets follow a flow model much more than a valuation model?
  • 00:31:01 Is our retirement model the problem or the solution? Is a future crash inevitable? Is the small enterprise dead forever?
  • 00:39:13 How should contrarian investors position themselves? How committed can one be to an ‘impending bubble’?
  • 00:47:45 What is America’s contribution to the world? Does China now have the better approach to capitalism? Can we ever come up with companies that do things cheap and better (instead of just better)?
  • 00:55:05 Are societal changes solely to blame for changes in productivity growth?
  • 01:01:01 Can longevity research (and the ability to live forever) change how the world will grow?
  • 01:09:01 Should we always be ‘smart investors’ or is ‘going with the crowd’ often better? What are the dilemmas of the contrarian or cataclysmic investor? How do high profile investors deal with this?
  • 01:21:10 What other bubbles does Mike see in today’s market and how can retail investors trade against such a bubble formation (if they choose to do so)?
  • 01:26:48 Will China start a hot war in Asia in the next 15 years? Will trade (and China’s trading partners) matter? How is the chess board stacked towards such a war. What are China’s incentives?

Mike Green has been a student of markets and market structure for nearly 30 years. Mike works with Simplify to create ETF products that give retail investors an edge. Before that Mike has worked with Logica Capital Advisers and Thiel Macro.

You may watch this episode on Youtube – #100 Mike Green (The gravitational force of passive investing on capital allocation and geopolitics).

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#99 Thaddeus ‘the Catholic’ (Pluralism, Liberalism, Postmodernism, Idolatry, World Government)

  • 00:01:00 How Thaddeus got into philosophy and theology in the first place?
  • 00:05:45 How political pluralism should work? Is the US actually pluralistic?
  • 00:12:23 Has liberalism built a super structure of metaethics on top of religions. Are religions (too) boxed in by the liberal structure? How has our consciousness already been changed by this structure?
  • 00:19:13 Is the treatment of religions and reality comparable? How should philosophy deal with quantum physics?
  • 00:30:03 What did postmodernism contribute to the current state of philosophy?
  • 00:35:03 What did Friedrich Nietzsche really try to tell us in ‘Thus Spoke Zarathustra’? How much of his depression should be attributed Christianity?
  • 00:39:03 Why are so many people falling out with active Christianity? Is it connected to the different role of idolatry (the replacement of the divine) between the older Abrahamic religions and the New Testament?
  • 00:45:02 What kind of love is the most fulfilling – self-centered or selfless?
  • 00:51:02 How does Ayn Rand’s philosophy (Objectivism) fit into the high regard that is given to selfless love by philosophers? Is altruism self love or selflessness?
  • 00:53:01 Why do we have this endless potential of addiction? Is addiction a coping mechanism for reality? Does it help us reconcile long-term and short-term goals? Is it better than being stuck in place?
  • 00:57:34 Is religion a system of societal error correction? Do religions give you better life goals (and free you of addictions). Have religions become too lazy and are not challenged enough? Has postmodernism shown us how uncontested religious ideas are a problem?
  • 01:07:13 Is the catholic church a good model for a ‘world government’?

Thaddeus Kozinski is a professor of theology and philosophy at the Divine Mercy University. He is the author of Modernity as Apocalypse: Sacred Nihilism and the Counterfeits of Logos and The Political Problem of Religious Pluralism: And Why Philosophers Can’t Solve It.

You may watch this episode on Youtube – Thaddeus ‘the Catholic’ (Pluralism, Liberalism, Postmodernism, Idolatry, World Government).

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#98 Max Wiethe (The state of financial industry and financial media)

  • 00:03:30 What regulation should we employ in the financial industry? Does it make us more safe?
  • 00:10:57 How Max got into his current career and what he has learned from his interviewees.
  • 00:17:01 Is the world going crazy? Is the ‘attentionalism’ already changing people and is the financial industry a good showcase for this? Is ‘career risk’ actually the most important part of financial decision making? How should ‘risk taking’ work in the financial industry?
  • 00:27:00 What is the state of financial media? Why is holding up better than other parts of journalism?
  • 00:36:01 Which opportunities are available in the finance sector? Are entrepreneurial opportunities in other sectors of the economy really harder to come by than a few decades ago?
  • 00:41:16 Will machines take over everything but marketing and sales? Are humans competitive vs. machines in terms of making complex decisions?
  • 00:56:16 Will we see the ‘rise of independent curators’ in the financial industry?
  • 01:10:30 Have preferences for earning money changed? Is quality of life more important than high earnings?
  • 01:20:11 Will exploring new planets (and the possibilities of discovering assets) change the society on earth forever?

You may watch this episode on Youtube – Max Wiethe (The state of financial industry and financial journalism).

Max Wiethe is an editor and journalist at Real Vision where Max hosts a weekly series of interviews with financial industry heavyweights.

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#97 Julio Maria Muhorro (Tales of Entrepreneurship in Africa)

  • 00:00:36 How Julio’s entrepreneurial journey started?
  • 00:06:29 How do opportunities for entrepreneurs in Africa stack up currently?
  • 00:13:45 How knowledge based and digital content businesses are faring in coastal African countries. How staggered access to digital innovations delays opportunities outside of the US.
  • 00:20:48 How to find early adopters for your startup? Can you find them in a ‘non early adopter market’?
  • 00:24:35 What is the ‘correct idea‘ of a risk-taking entrepreneur?
  • 00:29:01 How will we get to nine billion brains and innovating entrepreneurs in the future?
  • 00:36:34 How will we deal with the enormous amount of ‘cultural download’? How difficult is it to identify opportunities?
  • 00:40:14 How do we identify and allocate future revenue streams (that look more like TV/film royalties)? How do we stabilize resource allocation for micro entrepreneurship?
  • 00:45:01 Why the ‘platform economy’ is a short term ‘trap’ for most entrepreneurs. But is it a good intermediate stage?
  • 00:54:01 How do we set the right framework and incentive to encourage and foster entrepreneurship (as an example in Mozambique).
  • 01:01:01 Is valuation the only USP of an investor? Are secondary variables more important?
  • 01:04:01 Is negative or positive motivation the ‘better motivation’ for creating the desire to ‘improve the world’?
  • 01:09:10 What are the best countries to invest in in Africa? Do the ‘nation states’ even matter much?
  • 01:16:15 Is Crowdfunding a solution to the funding problem of African startups?

You may watch this episode on Youtube – Julio Maria Muhorro (Tales of Entrepreneurship in Africa).

Julio Maria Muhorro is an entrepreneur and business coach based in Mozambique and South Africa.

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#96 Alexander Bard (The philosophy of everything)

  • 00:00:30 How Alexander and his co-author Jan have managed to produce such an enormous (and prophetic) body of written work over the last 20 years
  • 00:04:43 What Alexander thinks about postmodernism?
  • 00:09:01 What are ‘Netocrats‘? How is the world changing due to the Internet? Who is ready for the digital future and who is not?
  • 00:14:01 What is the future of (representative) democracy and politics in general? What is a ‘sensocracy‘?
  • 00:19:30 How should a ‘world government‘ work? How much subsidiarity will it allow? What role will ‘charter cities‘ play?
  • 00:24:15 Will we be able to switch between city state benevolent dictatorships (i.e. will countries/ cities be run like companies) as part of our life?
  • 00:27:01 Why was Jesus Christ actually killed & the surprising utility of ’empires’.
  • 00:30:42 How our future laws are already emerging throughout Internet.
  • 00:34:31 Is competition increasing for companies? Should we react with more collaboration to improve our competitiveness?
  • 00:42:31 What role do Internet platforms play? Do they actually have a monopoly?
  • 00:45:21 Is marketing as a whole evil? How has it changed over the years and how it is connected to ‘attentionalism‘? We will abolish advertising soon to protect our ‘sacred space’?
  • 00:51:01 Why is productivity growth so low? Are we not daring enough? Is the focus on marketing (‘useless products’) to blame?
  • 00:58:43 Why wars (as terrible as they are) are good measures of productivity and ideology.
  • 00:59:55 After the ‘Death of God’ and the ‘Death of the Individual’ how are we now orient ourselves?
  • 01:07:32 Why ‘native tribes’ don’t see a crisis of meaning or depression currently? Why some religions are more static than others.
  • 01:11:23 What is our best bet for a future religion? Is it likely to emerge or will we have to live with many parallel truths? Will we see ‘weird activism’ instead?
  • 01:18:11 Why the world will look more like India and Singapore soon?
  • 01:24:12 What surprised Alexander the most (compared to his predictions) the within the last 20 years?
  • 01:26:58 What will happen in 2038? Will AGI actually emerge by itself?
  • 01:31:01 Are we (co-)created by an alien intelligence? Is the multiverse theory useful? Should we investigate spacetime more thoroughly?

You may watch this episode on Youtube – #96 Alexander Bard (The philosophy of everything).

Alexander Bard is a musician, author, lecturer, artist, songwriter, music producer, political activist and philosopher.

Alexander is co-author of a number of books incl. Syntheism – Creating God in the Internet Age, The Futurica Trilogy and Digital Libido.

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#95 Imran Lakha (How to use option strategies to improve your market edge)

  • 00:00:38 How Imran found his way from Wall Street to teaching option strategies at Options Insight.
  • 00:09:42 What retail traders should learn before trading options. Why meme stocks options are such a ‘rational choice’ right now?
  • 00:14:42 Where are the best opportunities for trading options to still have an edge?
  • 00:24:45 What is Imran’s view on the delation/inflation scenario? Are commodities a good hedge?
  • 00:29:35 Why does a ‘rational investor’ buy negative yielding bonds (or very low yielding bonds) at all considering the inflation risk?
  • 00:36:35 Did Softbank successfully manipulate the stock market for mid-tier tech stocks in 2020?
  • 00:43:19 Is there a ‘low risk’ strategy to buy/sell volatility?
  • 00:48:56 What are excellent, low risk hedging strategies for a portfolio? Can a option based ‘hedge’ actually make money?
  • 01:03:15 What is the strong relationship between low interest rates and money losing tech companies?
  • 01:08:10 Is there are place for ‘value investors’ left? Why does the investment world basically just ‘bet on more free money’ instead?
  • 01:13:14 What is Imran’s strategy to use options trading Bitcoin upside/ downside?

You may watch this episode on Youtube – #95 Imran Lakha (How to use option strategies to improve your market edge).

Imran Lakha has been working with Citibank, Bank of America and Credit Suisse trading options. He now teaches options strategies at Options Insight.

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#94 Erik Lentz (How to build an actual warp drive)

  • 00:00:14 The short history of Erik’s discovery (and theory) of faster than light speed travel.
  • 00:06:20 How Faster Than Light Speed travel would actually work?
  • 00:16:20 How much energy would be required for a warp drive propulsion? Is there enough energy in the universe to make faster than light speed travel feasible?
  • 00:25:29 Why the ‘twin paradox’ will be solved with a warp drive?
  • 00:32:47 Did Stargate get the ‘warp’ drive idea right after all?
  • 00:39:13 Are Black Holes a form of cosmic pollution left over by ‘misconnecting warp drives’?
  • 00:44:50 Is time the same for everyone in the universe?
  • 00:50:10 What compels us to be pioneers?
  • 00:53:05 Do we live in a simulation?
  • 01:03:43 What are other ‘faster than light’ phenomena in the universe?
  • 01:14:34 How does ‘dark energy/ dark matter’ work? What do we know about it?
  • 01:25:10 Are there more dimensions than the four we can easily interact with? Does time exist without a conscious observer?

You may watch this episode on Youtube – #94 Erik Lentz (How to build an actual warp drive).

Apologies for the sound quality during the first few minutes – it gets much better after the initial five minutes!

Erik Lentz is a Ph.D. physicist and focuses on the theoretical, computational, and experimental aspects of searching for dark matter as well as faster than light travel.

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