Essays on judgment, technology, and decisions under uncertaintyhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.comJudgment Call publishes essays on technology, philosophy, and society through the lens of judgment and decision science. Episode transcripts are retired. Essays explain mechanisms, base rates, and how people decide when the evidence is incomplete.Artificial intelligence mammogram: 91% false positives at 1% prevalence — biopsy or watch?https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/artificial-intelligence-mammogram-91-false-positives-at-1-prevalence-biopsy-or-watch.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/artificial-intelligence-mammogram-91-false-positives-at-1-prevalence-biopsy-or-watch.phpArtificial intelligence mammogram: 91% false positives at 1% prevalence — biopsy or watch?Sun, 25 Oct 2026 01:42:09 GMTKada se isplati kartica: 2026. naknade i tečaj Visa/Mastercard — usporedihttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/kada-se-isplati-kartica-2026-naknade-i-teaj-visamastercard-usporedi.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/kada-se-isplati-kartica-2026-naknade-i-teaj-visamastercard-usporedi.phpKada se isplati kartica: 2026. naknade i tečaj Visa/Mastercard — usporediThu, 22 Oct 2026 01:32:21 GMTBritish cyber resilience bill reporting: 24-hour incident response plan change or not?https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/british-cyber-resilience-bill-reporting-24-hour-incident-response-plan-change-or-not.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/british-cyber-resilience-bill-reporting-24-hour-incident-response-plan-change-or-not.phpBritish cyber resilience bill reporting: 24-hour incident response plan change or not?Mon, 19 Oct 2026 01:16:00 GMTRussia social growth: 2011 VKontakte vs Facebook monthly users — clone or differentiatehttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/russia-social-growth-2011-vkontakte-vs-facebook-monthly-users-clone-or-differentiate.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/russia-social-growth-2011-vkontakte-vs-facebook-monthly-users-clone-or-differentiate.phpRussia social growth: 2011 VKontakte vs Facebook monthly users — clone or differentiateFri, 16 Oct 2026 00:54:22 GMTHow to Recover Unclaimed Dividends in Nigeria: SEC e-Dividend Portal BVN Step to Get Paidhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/how-to-recover-unclaimed-dividends-in-nigeria-sec-e-dividend-portal-bvn-step-to-get-paid.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/how-to-recover-unclaimed-dividends-in-nigeria-sec-e-dividend-portal-bvn-step-to-get-paid.phpHow to Recover Unclaimed Dividends in Nigeria: SEC e-Dividend Portal BVN Step to Get PaidTue, 13 Oct 2026 00:42:05 GMTWhat is a pre-mortem? CATCS 2030 planning turns uncertainty into decisionshttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/what-is-a-pre-mortem-catcs-2030-planning-turns-uncertainty-into-decisions.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/what-is-a-pre-mortem-catcs-2030-planning-turns-uncertainty-into-decisions.phpWhat is a pre-mortem? CATCS 2030 planning turns uncertainty into decisionsSat, 10 Oct 2026 00:24:02 GMTHow to Verify Whether a 0.18 Brier Score Beats a 0.25 Scorehttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/how-to-verify-whether-a-018-brier-score-beats-a-025-score.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/how-to-verify-whether-a-018-brier-score-beats-a-025-score.phpHow to Verify Whether a 0.18 Brier Score Beats a 0.25 ScoreSun, 04 Oct 2026 17:06:48 GMTAmazon Kindle Colorsoft Review: 4,096 Colors — Buy or Skip?https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/amazon-kindle-colorsoft-review-4096-colors-buy-or-skip.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/amazon-kindle-colorsoft-review-4096-colors-buy-or-skip.phpAmazon Kindle Colorsoft Review: 4,096 Colors — Buy or Skip?Thu, 01 Oct 2026 16:56:12 GMTMedical Test Accuracy Explained: 50/50 After Positive Retest or Watchhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/medical-test-accuracy-explained-5050-after-positive-retest-or-watch.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/medical-test-accuracy-explained-5050-after-positive-retest-or-watch.phpMedical Test Accuracy Explained: 50/50 After Positive Retest or WatchMon, 28 Sep 2026 16:11:21 GMTArtificial Intelligence Confidence: 0.25 Brier Score—Show or Hide?https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/artificial-intelligence-confidence-025-brier-scoreshow-or-hide.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/artificial-intelligence-confidence-025-brier-scoreshow-or-hide.phpArtificial Intelligence Confidence: 0.25 Brier Score—Show or Hide?Fri, 25 Sep 2026 15:54:36 GMTWhen to quit a project: $25,000 kill rule vs open-ended fixhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/when-to-quit-a-project-25000-kill-rule-vs-open-ended-fix.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/when-to-quit-a-project-25000-kill-rule-vs-open-ended-fix.phpWhen to quit a project: $25,000 kill rule vs open-ended fixTue, 22 Sep 2026 15:12:32 GMTGolf par 5 risk 2026: 23% aggression shift — attack or lay up?https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/golf-par-5-risk-2026-23-aggression-shift-attack-or-lay-up.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/golf-par-5-risk-2026-23-aggression-shift-attack-or-lay-up.phpGolf par 5 risk 2026: 23% aggression shift — attack or lay up?Sat, 19 Sep 2026 14:48:43 GMTWhy managers trust automation: $11 review vs $18,000 errorhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/why-managers-trust-automation-11-review-vs-18000-error.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/why-managers-trust-automation-11-review-vs-18000-error.phpWhy managers trust automation: $11 review vs $18,000 errorWed, 16 Sep 2026 09:44:06 GMTHealth Screening Risk Score: 12% Mirai Score Biopsy or Watch 3 Monthshttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/health-screening-risk-score-12-mirai-score-biopsy-or-watch-3-months.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/health-screening-risk-score-12-mirai-score-biopsy-or-watch-3-months.phpHealth Screening Risk Score: 12% Mirai Score Biopsy or Watch 3 MonthsSun, 13 Sep 2026 08:12:36 GMTOverconfident product bets 2026: AI pre-mortem vs vote cuts 20% bad betshttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/overconfident-product-bets-2026-ai-pre-mortem-vs-vote-cuts-20-bad-bets.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/overconfident-product-bets-2026-ai-pre-mortem-vs-vote-cuts-20-bad-bets.phpOverconfident product bets 2026: AI pre-mortem vs vote cuts 20% bad betsThu, 10 Sep 2026 07:13:22 GMT2026 Reg CF: $5M Ceiling, Live Counts vs $1.235M Audit Passhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/2026-reg-cf-5m-ceiling-live-counts-vs-1235m-audit-pass.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/2026-reg-cf-5m-ceiling-live-counts-vs-1235m-audit-pass.php2026 Reg CF: $5M Ceiling, Live Counts vs $1.235M Audit PassSat, 05 Sep 2026 09:42:20 GMTOutside-View Math: Why 30% Is a Boundary, Not Physicshttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/outside-view-math-why-30-is-a-boundary-not-physics.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/outside-view-math-why-30-is-a-boundary-not-physics.phpOutside-View Math: Why 30% Is a Boundary, Not PhysicsThu, 03 Sep 2026 21:25:58 GMTWhy 47 Shark Bites in 2024 Reveal How Travelers Misjudge Riskhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/why-47-shark-bites-in-2024-reveal-how-travelers-misjudge-risk.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/why-47-shark-bites-in-2024-reveal-how-travelers-misjudge-risk.phpWhy 47 Shark Bites in 2024 Reveal How Travelers Misjudge RiskWed, 02 Sep 2026 09:10:20 GMTGPT-4's 80% Confidence Cliff: Delegate, Verify, or Vetohttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/gpt-4s-80-confidence-cliff-delegate-verify-or-veto.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/gpt-4s-80-confidence-cliff-delegate-verify-or-veto.phpGPT-4's 80% Confidence Cliff: Delegate, Verify, or VetoMon, 31 Aug 2026 20:53:05 GMTWYSIATI and the 90/76 Problem: Why GPT-4 Isn't a Clinical Oraclehttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/wysiati-and-the-9076-problem-why-gpt-4-isnt-a-clinical-oracle.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/wysiati-and-the-9076-problem-why-gpt-4-isnt-a-clinical-oracle.phpWYSIATI and the 90/76 Problem: Why GPT-4 Isn't a Clinical OracleSun, 30 Aug 2026 08:40:31 GMT401(k) Choice Overload: The 48-Hour Rule for Fund Selectionhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/401k-choice-overload-the-48-hour-rule-for-fund-selection.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/401k-choice-overload-the-48-hour-rule-for-fund-selection.php401(k) Choice Overload: The 48-Hour Rule for Fund SelectionFri, 28 Aug 2026 20:22:48 GMTDiwali 2026 Phishing: Simulated Pre-commitment Lowers Risk 40%https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/diwali-2026-phishing-simulated-pre-commitment-lowers-risk-40.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/diwali-2026-phishing-simulated-pre-commitment-lowers-risk-40.phpDiwali 2026 Phishing: Simulated Pre-commitment Lowers Risk 40%Thu, 27 Aug 2026 08:10:09 GMTFlashcards vs Full-Length Tests: What the Testing Effect Sayshttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/flashcards-vs-full-length-tests-what-the-testing-effect-says.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/flashcards-vs-full-length-tests-what-the-testing-effect-says.phpFlashcards vs Full-Length Tests: What the Testing Effect SaysTue, 25 Aug 2026 19:37:52 GMT82,361 Forecasts, 3 Archetypes: Why the Hedger Wins in 2026https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/82361-forecasts-3-archetypes-why-the-hedger-wins-in-2026.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/82361-forecasts-3-archetypes-why-the-hedger-wins-in-2026.php82,361 Forecasts, 3 Archetypes: Why the Hedger Wins in 2026Mon, 24 Aug 2026 04:55:19 GMTCan 'Art' Labels Fool AI Detection? 48.2% Pixel Verdicthttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/can-art-labels-fool-ai-detection-482-pixel-verdict.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/can-art-labels-fool-ai-detection-482-pixel-verdict.phpCan 'Art' Labels Fool AI Detection? 48.2% Pixel VerdictSat, 22 Aug 2026 14:21:58 GMTFounder Autonomy Scores: 30% Lower Turnover in 2026https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/founder-autonomy-scores-30-lower-turnover-in-2026.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/founder-autonomy-scores-30-lower-turnover-in-2026.phpFounder Autonomy Scores: 30% Lower Turnover in 2026Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:55:49 GMTEU AI Act 2026: FLOP Thresholds, Liability & Open-Source Auditshttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/eu-ai-act-2026-flop-thresholds-liability-open-source-audits.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/eu-ai-act-2026-flop-thresholds-liability-open-source-audits.phpEU AI Act 2026: FLOP Thresholds, Liability & Open-Source AuditsWed, 19 Aug 2026 11:08:48 GMT2026 Apple One Hike: Family Lock-In vs. Unbundling Mathhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/2026-apple-one-hike-family-lock-in-vs-unbundling-math.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/2026-apple-one-hike-family-lock-in-vs-unbundling-math.php2026 Apple One Hike: Family Lock-In vs. Unbundling MathMon, 17 Aug 2026 22:15:05 GMT2026: AI Companions vs. Real Friends - Rational at 30% Effort?https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/2026-ai-companions-vs-real-friends-rational-at-30-effort.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/2026-ai-companions-vs-real-friends-rational-at-30-effort.php2026: AI Companions vs. Real Friends - Rational at 30% Effort?Sat, 15 Aug 2026 15:46:00 GMTEU AI Act: 0.5% Credit Scoring Threshold Backed by EBA Datahttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/eu-ai-act-05-credit-scoring-threshold-backed-by-eba-data.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/eu-ai-act-05-credit-scoring-threshold-backed-by-eba-data.phpEU AI Act: 0.5% Credit Scoring Threshold Backed by EBA DataFri, 14 Aug 2026 00:35:55 GMTVA Backlog 2026: File Now or Wait? Key Metrics Explainedhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/va-backlog-2026-file-now-or-wait-key-metrics-explained.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/va-backlog-2026-file-now-or-wait-key-metrics-explained.phpVA Backlog 2026: File Now or Wait? Key Metrics ExplainedWed, 12 Aug 2026 11:24:21 GMTEU AI Act's 10^25 FLOPs Threshold: A Numbers Game?https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/eu-ai-acts-1025-flops-threshold-a-numbers-game.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/eu-ai-acts-1025-flops-threshold-a-numbers-game.phpEU AI Act's 10^25 FLOPs Threshold: A Numbers Game?Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:23:13 GMTBayesian Recalibration: Why AI Failure Risk Is Lower Than Fearedhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/bayesian-recalibration-why-ai-failure-risk-is-lower-than-feared.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/bayesian-recalibration-why-ai-failure-risk-is-lower-than-feared.phpBayesian Recalibration: Why AI Failure Risk Is Lower Than FearedWed, 12 Aug 2026 11:14:45 GMTLead at 150 ppb? Use Tap Data, Not Labels, for NSF/ANSI 53https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/lead-at-150-ppb-use-tap-data-not-labels-for-nsfansi-53.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/lead-at-150-ppb-use-tap-data-not-labels-for-nsfansi-53.phpLead at 150 ppb? Use Tap Data, Not Labels, for NSF/ANSI 53Sun, 02 Aug 2026 02:00:05 GMTSmart-Meter Feedback Cuts Home kWh 9% in 2026 Meta-Analysishttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/smart-meter-feedback-cuts-home-kwh-9-in-2026-meta-analysis.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/smart-meter-feedback-cuts-home-kwh-9-in-2026-meta-analysis.phpSmart-Meter Feedback Cuts Home kWh 9% in 2026 Meta-AnalysisSun, 02 Aug 2026 01:44:31 GMTThe $15K-$240K Hiring Cost Myth and Anthropology's Onboarding Fixhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/the-15k-240k-hiring-cost-myth-and-anthropologys-onboarding-fix.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/the-15k-240k-hiring-cost-myth-and-anthropologys-onboarding-fix.phpThe $15K-$240K Hiring Cost Myth and Anthropology's Onboarding FixFri, 31 Jul 2026 23:07:51 GMTREST API Security 2026: AI Agents, Logic Flaws, and BFFshttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/rest-api-security-2026-ai-agents-logic-flaws-and-bffs.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/rest-api-security-2026-ai-agents-logic-flaws-and-bffs.phpREST API Security 2026: AI Agents, Logic Flaws, and BFFsFri, 31 Jul 2026 22:56:30 GMTEvaluating Business Risk Under Uncertainty Through a Pizza Delivery Case Studyhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/evaluating_business_risk_under_uncertainty_through_a_pizza_delivery_case_study.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/evaluating_business_risk_under_uncertainty_through_a_pizza_delivery_case_study.phpEvaluating Business Risk Under Uncertainty Through a Pizza Delivery Case StudyFri, 31 Jul 2026 04:53:46 GMTThe Secular Search for Meaning: Can We Flourish Without Faith?https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/the_secular_search_for_meaning_can_we_flourish_without_faith.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/the_secular_search_for_meaning_can_we_flourish_without_faith.phpThe Secular Search for Meaning: Can We Flourish Without Faith?Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:18:00 GMTAre Your Senses Lying to You? A Philosopher Weighs Inhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/are_your_senses_lying_to_you_a_philosopher_weighs_in.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/are_your_senses_lying_to_you_a_philosopher_weighs_in.phpAre Your Senses Lying to You? A Philosopher Weighs InThu, 30 Jul 2026 20:37:24 GMTCryogenic Chip Controls Qubits at Near Absolute Zerohttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/cryogenic_chip_controls_qubits_at_near_absolute_zero.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/cryogenic_chip_controls_qubits_at_near_absolute_zero.phpCryogenic Chip Controls Qubits at Near Absolute ZeroThu, 30 Jul 2026 16:44:12 GMTIntegrating AI Assets: A Strategic Framework for Sustainable Game Developmenthttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/integrating_ai_assets_a_strategic_framework_for_sustainable_game_development.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/integrating_ai_assets_a_strategic_framework_for_sustainable_game_development.phpIntegrating AI Assets: A Strategic Framework for Sustainable Game DevelopmentThu, 30 Jul 2026 15:58:57 GMTThe Stoic's Toolkit: Maintaining Rational Clarity in a Crisishttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/the_stoics_toolkit_maintaining_rational_clarity_in_a_crisis.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/the_stoics_toolkit_maintaining_rational_clarity_in_a_crisis.phpThe Stoic's Toolkit: Maintaining Rational Clarity in a CrisisThu, 30 Jul 2026 13:42:14 GMTThe Psychology of Digital Trust: Why We Fall for Social Engineeringhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/the_psychology_of_digital_trust_why_we_fall_for_social_engineering.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/the_psychology_of_digital_trust_why_we_fall_for_social_engineering.phpThe Psychology of Digital Trust: Why We Fall for Social EngineeringThu, 30 Jul 2026 13:25:21 GMTThe "Novus Ordo" Misnomer: Correcting a 1976 Historical Mythhttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/the_novus_ordo_misnomer_correcting_a_1976_historical_myth.phphttps://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/the_novus_ordo_misnomer_correcting_a_1976_historical_myth.phpThe "Novus Ordo" Misnomer: Correcting a 1976 Historical MythThu, 30 Jul 2026 13:10:37 GMT