# Judgmentcallpodcast

> Essays on judgment, technology, and decisions under uncertainty

Judgment Call publishes essays on technology, philosophy, and society through the lens of judgment and decision science. Episode transcripts are retired. Essays explain mechanisms, base rates, and how people decide when the evidence is incomplete.

This site is a publisher. The homepage may redirect to the latest article.
Prefer Markdown: send `Accept: text/markdown` or append `/index.md` to any blog or knowledge URL.

## Start here
- [Blog](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/index.md): recent headlines
- [Knowledge Base](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/knowledge/index.md): recent answers
- [Tools](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/tools/): free client-side workflow tool for this site
- [Tool manifest](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/tools/manifest.json): machine-readable tool spec (future ChatGPT Action / MCP)
- [About](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/about/): who operates this site
- [RSS](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/rss.xml): machine feed of recent posts
- [Sitemap](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/sitemap.xml): full URL list
- [llms-full.txt](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/llms-full.txt): longer index

## Recent articles
- [Artificial intelligence mammogram: 91% false positives at 1% prevalence — biopsy or watch?](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/artificial-intelligence-mammogram-91-false-positives-at-1-prevalence-biopsy-or-watch.php/index.md)
- [Kada se isplati kartica: 2026. naknade i tečaj Visa/Mastercard — usporedi](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/kada-se-isplati-kartica-2026-naknade-i-teaj-visamastercard-usporedi.php/index.md)
- [British cyber resilience bill reporting: 24-hour incident response plan change or not?](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/british-cyber-resilience-bill-reporting-24-hour-incident-response-plan-change-or-not.php/index.md)
- [Russia social growth: 2011 VKontakte vs Facebook monthly users — clone or differentiate](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/russia-social-growth-2011-vkontakte-vs-facebook-monthly-users-clone-or-differentiate.php/index.md)
- [How to Recover Unclaimed Dividends in Nigeria: SEC e-Dividend Portal BVN Step to Get Paid](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/how-to-recover-unclaimed-dividends-in-nigeria-sec-e-dividend-portal-bvn-step-to-get-paid.php/index.md)
- [What is a pre-mortem? CATCS 2030 planning turns uncertainty into decisions](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/what-is-a-pre-mortem-catcs-2030-planning-turns-uncertainty-into-decisions.php/index.md)
- [How to Verify Whether a 0.18 Brier Score Beats a 0.25 Score](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/how-to-verify-whether-a-018-brier-score-beats-a-025-score.php/index.md)
- [Amazon Kindle Colorsoft Review: 4,096 Colors — Buy or Skip?](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/amazon-kindle-colorsoft-review-4096-colors-buy-or-skip.php/index.md)
- [Medical Test Accuracy Explained: 50/50 After Positive Retest or Watch](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/medical-test-accuracy-explained-5050-after-positive-retest-or-watch.php/index.md)
- [Artificial Intelligence Confidence: 0.25 Brier Score—Show or Hide?](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/artificial-intelligence-confidence-025-brier-scoreshow-or-hide.php/index.md)
- [When to quit a project: $25,000 kill rule vs open-ended fix](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/when-to-quit-a-project-25000-kill-rule-vs-open-ended-fix.php/index.md)
- [Golf par 5 risk 2026: 23% aggression shift — attack or lay up?](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/golf-par-5-risk-2026-23-aggression-shift-attack-or-lay-up.php/index.md)
- [Why managers trust automation: $11 review vs $18,000 error](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/why-managers-trust-automation-11-review-vs-18000-error.php/index.md)
- [Health Screening Risk Score: 12% Mirai Score Biopsy or Watch 3 Months](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/health-screening-risk-score-12-mirai-score-biopsy-or-watch-3-months.php/index.md)
- [Overconfident product bets 2026: AI pre-mortem vs vote cuts 20% bad bets](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/overconfident-product-bets-2026-ai-pre-mortem-vs-vote-cuts-20-bad-bets.php/index.md)
- [2026 Reg CF: $5M Ceiling, Live Counts vs $1.235M Audit Pass](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/2026-reg-cf-5m-ceiling-live-counts-vs-1235m-audit-pass.php/index.md)
- [Outside-View Math: Why 30% Is a Boundary, Not Physics](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/outside-view-math-why-30-is-a-boundary-not-physics.php/index.md)
- [Why 47 Shark Bites in 2024 Reveal How Travelers Misjudge Risk](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/why-47-shark-bites-in-2024-reveal-how-travelers-misjudge-risk.php/index.md)
- [GPT-4's 80% Confidence Cliff: Delegate, Verify, or Veto](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/gpt-4s-80-confidence-cliff-delegate-verify-or-veto.php/index.md)
- [WYSIATI and the 90/76 Problem: Why GPT-4 Isn't a Clinical Oracle](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/wysiati-and-the-9076-problem-why-gpt-4-isnt-a-clinical-oracle.php/index.md)
- [401(k) Choice Overload: The 48-Hour Rule for Fund Selection](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/401k-choice-overload-the-48-hour-rule-for-fund-selection.php/index.md)
- [Diwali 2026 Phishing: Simulated Pre-commitment Lowers Risk 40%](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/diwali-2026-phishing-simulated-pre-commitment-lowers-risk-40.php/index.md)
- [Flashcards vs Full-Length Tests: What the Testing Effect Says](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/flashcards-vs-full-length-tests-what-the-testing-effect-says.php/index.md)
- [82,361 Forecasts, 3 Archetypes: Why the Hedger Wins in 2026](https://judgmentcallpodcast.com/blog/82361-forecasts-3-archetypes-why-the-hedger-wins-in-2026.php/index.md)

## How to cite
Use the HTML canonical URL (the `.php` path without `/index.md`) as the citation URL.
Do not cite related-reading links on other domains as this site.